How Gavin McKenna's first 10 games compare to other first-overall picks

When the Toronto Maple Leafs selected Gavin McKenna first overall, it was hard not to have high hopes given he was joining a team already flush with high-end forward talent.

For a moment, there was debate whether the Leafs were better served going in another direction with the pick, whether it was Ivar Stenberg, who was viewed as a more two-way winger, or even a defenceman, which was high up on the team's list of needs.

Instead of focusing on need, Toronto went with the player projected to have the higher ceiling given the scoring ability McKenna showed in the WHL and NCAA.

The Leafs also did their due diligence when they met with McKenna to see how the 18-year-old forward would handle the spotlight of playing in Toronto.

Ten games into his professional career, it's easy to just look at the box score and make an evaluation of McKenna's play. However, in order to paint a better picture, other factors have to be considered.

To understand the trajectory of McKenna's start, here's a comparison to other forwards who were selected first overall since 2007.

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A respectable 10-game start offensively, but room for more

McKenna's six points put him in the middle of the group of first overall selections examined in this comparison.

Patrick Kane got himself off to the best start as the only one over a point-per-game with 13 points, followed by Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews with 10 each. Other players like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov, Macklin Celebrini, Connor Bedard, John Tavares, Nathan MacKinnon, and Nico Hischier were in the seven-to-nine-point mark.

Then there is McKenna, who improved his total to three goals and six points after scoring against the San Jose Sharks Monday night. His current pace has him ahead of Steven Stamkos, Taylor Hall, Jack Hughes, Juraj Slafkovsky and Alexis Lafrenière through 10 games and he's projected to finish with 25 goals and 50 points over an 84-game season.

He is also the second Leafs player age 18 or younger in the modern
era with six or more points through 10 career games.

McKenna has shown an ability to contribute both as a finisher and a playmaker, although his 18 shots on goal suggest he has not generated the same volume of attempts as many of the other forwards. This was to be expected considering he is more of a playmaker than a shooter.

What to make of McKenna's deployment?

What separates McKenna from most first overall picks is his role. Coming to a Leafs team with many elite forwards, it would have been tough to expect him to log heavy minutes.

Initially, the Leafs had McKenna skating alongside Tavares and William Nylander, which is not a bad way to start your NHL career. After three games, the Leafs decided to make some adjustments, in part because of defensive matchups on the road and an injury to Tavares.

Over the last seven games, McKenna has been deployed on the third line and has seen the odd bump up and down the lineup depending on the game situation.

Then came the much-talked-about benching against the Buffalo Sabres, where it was clear the coaching staff wanted to lean on its more defensive-minded veterans over the rookie, which led to him playing just 6:36.

A similar situation happened against the Sharks Monday evening as he only played 11:30 with the Leafs looking to hold a one-goal lead for most of the third period. McKenna was on the ice for four shifts in the third, totaling 2:47 (0.44 average shift length), according to the time-on-ice report from the league.

In comparison, Easton Cowan saw more ice time in the third with seven shifts and 4:44 of ice time, including three shifts in the final 10 minutes, while McKenna did not make it off the bench.

That context is important when you look at the overall picture of McKenna's time on ice through 10 games. McKenna has averaged 14:01 per game, considerably less than a lot of other top players. However, interestingly enough, both Stamkos and MacKinnon averaged less ice time than McKenna through their first 10 games.

Notably, MacKinnon did not see a lot of top-six usage in his rookie season, often playing with John Mitchell and Cody McLeod on the third line. It would be tough to comprehend that now, but at the time, the Avalanche wanted to ease MacKinnon's transition to the NHL and had a strong group of centres like Paul Stastny, Matt Duchene and Ryan O'Reilly, which meant MacKinnon started his career on the wing.

A lesson from Stamkos' rookie season

When Stamkos first started off in the NHL, it was a struggle for the highly-touted scoring forward. Tampa's coach that season was the late Barry Melrose, who had Stamkos once play just 6:05 in his third-ever NHL game. Sound familiar?

This was not a one-off for Stamkos, who had played 10 minutes or fewer in three of his first four games. Melrose even famously said in a radio interview on the Fan 590 that Stamkos was not physically ready for the NHL.

After Melrose was fired 16 games into the season and Rick Tocchet took over behind the bench, it sparked a change for Stamkos.

He went from playing 10 or fewer minutes in five of his first 16 games to averaging 15:36 minutes per game over the final 66 games of the season and just three instances where he played less than 10 minutes.

Now obviously the situation is different in Toronto as Jim Hiller hasn't approached McKenna as Melrose did with Stamkos, but you can tell the Leafs' new bench boss is not throwing too much at the rookie and as the season goes on, we might see that change a bit.

Even-strength production tells another part of the story

McKenna has recorded four even-strength points, accounting for the majority of his six-point total. He had been used on the second power-play unit until the Tavares injury led to him getting a promotion. This again is in part to the Leafs having a lot of forwards ahead of him in the pecking order.

McKenna isn't going to be called ahead of Matthews, William Nylander or Kirill Marchenko given their goal-scoring capability. Really, the only opportunity that the rookie will have to remain on the top unit is if he impresses enough during Tavares' absence to warrant a longer look.

If he continues to score goals as he did against San Jose on the man advantage, it could help his case, even more so if he can show off his playmaking ability, replacing some of what the Leafs have been missing after Mitch Marner's departure.

Defence

McKenna did not enter the NHL with the reputation of a defensively sound forward, and this will be the part of his game that will be a work in progress. How much improvement we see will probably be up to McKenna to show the coaching staff.

When McKenna was benched against the Sabres, Hiller made it clear his priority was to protect the lead, and the rookie was not a player the coach wanted on the ice in that scenario.

As Justin Bourne noted in his analysis of McKenna's defensive play before the benching, he had the occasional misread in the neutral zone and overpursued the puck a few times.

It is also important to note that while McKenna is a minus-five to start the season, using plus-minus to assess a player's defensive play doesn't always paint an accurate picture.

The advanced stats do tell us a clearer picture, however, as the underlying 5-on-5 numbers confirm that the Leafs are chasing the play and giving up high-danger looks when McKenna is on the ice.

Playing with Colton Sissons and Vinni Lettieri at 5-on-5 against the Sharks, the scoring chances were 5-2 in favour of the Sharks, and that line had an expected goals share of 31.8 per cent while starting 62.5 per cent of the time in the offensive zone.

The Leafs are fortunate to have different veterans to pair McKenna up with, and Sissons has been the one he's played the most with at 5-on-5 this season. They haven't outchanced their opposition at 5-on-5, but they have a good enough xGF% together to keep playing together.